What's in a Plan: Reflections on Tesla's Master Plans

Some background on previous Tesla’s “Secret” Master Plans

In 2006, Elon Musk released his first “Secret” Master Plan that was only available to anyone with an internet connection. In it, he laid out the vision for Tesla that many of us are familiar with (my summary):

1. Create a sexy Roadster

2. Use funds from that sexy car to build a sexy but more affordable luxury car (Model S)

3. Use funds from that luxury car to build a more affordable smaller car (Model 3)

Ten years later, Tesla and Musk released a second Secret Master Plan: Part Deux. This plan reached beyond Tesla’s original “Tesla Motor Company” aspirations, and solidified its goals in the energy space. The plan in reality has become the Solar Roof, Tesla Semi, and Tesla’s Full Self Driving software that has been released to beta users. In Tesla’s words:

1. Create stunning solar roofs with seamlessly integrated battery storage

2. Expand the electric vehicle product line to address all major segments

3. Develop a self-driving capability that is 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning

4. Enable your car to make money for you when you aren't using it

All of these Master Plan’s are important because they are the equivalent of a batter pointing to the home run stands with their bat prior to even seeing a pitch. Few companies state explicitly what their major priorities will be, or at least bury them in an annual report so they can’t be held accountable down the road.

Tesla deserves some kudos for the following:

1. Making their “secret” goals public so they can be held accountable

2. Setting long-term goals that include product details but also a vision for others because they are confident that their approach will be the most innovative

3. Pursuing some off-shoots of the plan that just seemed interesting.

   1. Note: These areas may not have been winners from the start, but they could lead to a more complete plan in the future. (For example: Model X, Tesla Entertainment)

There has been some discussion about this lately because Musk mentioned in the past few days working on the third at latest iteration of a master plan.

That said, thinking about transportation in general, I lay out what I wish Tesla’s plan to be.

What I wish Tesla's Secret Master Plan Part Tres would be:

1. Build an electric jet that can rival current single passenger planes (~50 seats) with reduced crew and maintenance operating costs for flights under 300 miles. Cost savings will fuel number 2.

   1. Note: Many electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft are close to this (with reduced range), but my argument is to use the existing airport infrastructure and focus on longer range and higher passenger numbers instead of small use cases for alleviating traffic.

2. Build a network of tunnels and large electric autonomous surface passenger vehicles that augment (and eventually replace) the need for short haul flights.

3. Transition cargo aircraft to be fully electric and autonomous. Use this as a model for other industries (marine, rail).

Enabling technologies

• Increased energy battery density

• Remote pilots to act as co-pilot for passenger flights (keeping a human pilot in the cockpit)

• Remote pilots act as autonomous back-ups for cargo aircraft to provide flexibility in regulation adoption

• Faster boring tool creation and possibly larger boring diameters

However, Tesla will not shift to aviation any time soon, and other companies like Joby, Lilium, Eviation, the Boring Company, Boeing, Airbus and a host of others will have to fight for their own piece of this vision.

What I think the Secret Master Plan Part Tres will be

1. For a reduced scope of artificial intelligence (AI) tasks, implement AI in a human form robot (Optimus). This capability will improve upon and enhance Full Self Driving work to date. Use Optimus to reduce labor costs until Tesla's vehicle production goals are achieved (cars, semi truck, Cybertruck).

2. Build out and test general AI capabilities leveraging robot training approaches. Build capabilities into a service accessible by others.

3. Create a sustainable housing (HVAC included) and energy storage (battery) supply chain using recycled batteries and new mining methods.

Enabling technologies

• HVAC system integrated with energy storage and management

• Vehicle to X (V2X) technology on all new vehicles (X = ability to provide power to external appliances and load (V2L), other vehicles (V2V), to home (V2H) and back to the grid (V2G))

• Innovative battery mining

• Innovative battery recycling (company acquisitions?)

Those are my current thoughts. I’m sure Musk will swing for the fences with whatever his third master plan ends up being.